AI Could Lift Global Trade by Nearly 40% by 2040

Artificial intelligence (AI) could increase the value of global trade in goods and services by as much as 34–37% by 2040, according to a new report from the World Trade Organization (WTO). Global GDP is also projected to expand by around 12–13% if technological progress and policy support continue along their present course.

The report underlines AI’s potential to reduce trade costs and improve productivity through more efficient logistics, streamlined regulatory compliance, and advances in translation and communication. Digitally deliverable services are expected to grow particularly strongly, with AI improving the reach and efficiency of sectors such as professional services, information technology, and remote collaboration. Developing and emerging economies also stand to gain if they can strengthen their digital foundations. The WTO notes that if low- and middle-income countries succeed in reducing their digital infrastructure gap by half, average incomes in these economies could rise by about 15%. This would not only accelerate growth but also support a more balanced distribution of benefits from AI.

However, the WTO cautions that access to AI remains highly uneven. Much of the required infrastructure, from advanced semiconductors to computing capacity and robust regulatory frameworks, is concentrated in wealthier countries. Unless addressed, this imbalance risks entrenching existing inequalities rather than reducing them. The report also points to growing trade barriers. Many goods critical to AI development already face high tariffs, and the number of quantitative restrictions has risen sharply from roughly 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024. Such obstacles could slow the wider adoption of AI technologies and limit their potential to transform trade.

Ensuring that AI benefits are shared broadly will require complementary measures, including investment in digital infrastructure, improvements in education and training, the modernisation of regulatory frameworks, and trade policies that encourage inclusion rather than exclusion. For governments, the findings highlight the urgency of updating trade rules and reducing barriers to AI-related goods and services. For businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises in developing regions, AI offers new possibilities for accessing global markets, provided that the basic enablers—connectivity, digital literacy, and affordable technology are in place. Education systems and labour markets will also need to adapt, with greater emphasis on reskilling and providing safety nets to support workers through transition.

The WTO’s analysis presents both promise and caution. AI could become one of the most significant drivers of trade and economic growth by 2040. Whether this potential leads to shared prosperity or deeper divides will depend on the choices policymakers and societies make today.

Source: WTO