BCC Trade Outlook survey reveals micro firms are impacted harder

The British Chambers of Commerce Trade Confidence Outlook surveyed over 2,000 exporters across the UK between 12th May and 9th June. Although the survey coincided with the signing of the new US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal, the changes were yet to come into effect. Similarl, the EU reset deal was announced on 19th May, but again the changes have yet to be implemented and are expected to take many months.

The survey showed that SME exporter sentiment remained weak, with the majority reporting not increase in export sales or orders, and micro firms (fewer than 10 employees) having worsening conditions. 24% of the SME exporters saw an increase in export sales, whilst 50% reported no changes and 26% registered a decrease. On the other hand, only 20% of micro firms saw an increase.

Summary of key findings:

• Fewer than one fifth (18%) of micro-exporters (fewer than 10 employees) increased export orders in Q2, with 29% reporting a decrease. 

• By comparison, 29% of large exporters (more than 250 staff) increased their export orders with a fifth (20%) reporting a drop. 

• More than a quarter (27%) of all SME exporters surveyed reported a decrease in export orders  

• Just over half (51%) said they saw no change in their export orders, and 22% an increase 

Greater Manchester Chamber's own US Tariff Impact Survey has changed from the first announcement of reciprocal tariffs, where most companies stated it was too early to tell about the impact (c. 200 SMEs respondents), and currently over 37 firms surveyed, just over 50%, indicated US Tariffs have had a somewhat negative or significantly negative impact on their trade with the US - both on the export and supply chain front, and in a similar line as the nation-wide survey, the negative impact of the tariffs is mostly felt by micro firms in Greater Manchester.

A couple of new preferential tariffs documents under the US-UK Economic Prosperity deal were released by the UK Government on the 23rd June, indicating changes will come into effect from the 30th June. Whilst the new deal does provide relief to the automotive and aerospace sectors, with lower or nil tariffs, and it is expected that tariffs for steel and aluminium will also be lower to zero potentially subject to quotas like the automotive sector, many other sectors remain expose to the reciprocal 10% tariff.

Also, with the USA;s ongoing negotiations with the rest of the world, UK traders must keep tabs on how these are going. Whilst Vietnam managed to also get a deal, the Trump Administration has sent 'Deal or Tariffs' letters to many of its key trading partners, but recent announcements register intentions to raise up tariffs for EU goods from 20% to 30% if a deal is not to be made. The tariff pause has been delay till the 1st August to allow for negotiations to continue and whilst the EU remains open for a deal, if it does not happen, retaliatory tariffs may also come into play for US goods from the 7th August.

UK Traders continue to face uncertainty despite the US-UK Trade deal having been signed, as ongoing negotiations with the EU, China and many other Asian countries, which the UK has close supply chains with, may face higher tariffs if deals are not agreed by Trump's deadline.

Susana Córdoba, Head of International Trade at GM Chamber said: "The Trade Strategy recently released by the UK Government announced funding to help with trade finance and to help SMES with regulatory barriers. It is imperative such funding is accessible to both SMEs and micro firms which are clearly in much need of support to keep their businesses trading through such challenging times. We also encourage SMEs and micro to keep up with announcements as whilst the UK may be exempt to further increases in tariffs, it does not shield UK traders from the impact that US tariffs can have in markets across the world, and US-EU as well as US-China negotiations must be monitored closely as these are more likely going to have a larger impact on UK traders."

Need help navigating the world of tariffs?

• The Chamber is at hand to help. Join our next trade forum where we will have a deep dive on Free Trade Agreements and Rules of Origin, and check out our Rules of Origin Courses, all designed to give traders the knowledge and tools to manage tariff uncertainty. Check the events and courses here

• Our expert customs team is also available for customs audits and supply chain assessments to help you understand the tariffs impact on your business. Simply email us at international@gmchamber.co.uk and book a complimentary 20-minute consultation session with one of our advisers.

Source: BCC Trade Outlook (12 May-9 Jun 2025), GMCC US Tariff Survey